Ukraine-Russia Grain Deal

This new grain agrrement is potentially a really big deal. Russia and Ukraine have reached an agreement (technically, both made the agreement with the UN, not directly with each other) that allows both sides to resume grain shipments, which would mitigate or avoid famine for millions of people in the ”global South“. This is at least an unusual agreement in the middle of a shooting war; Martin Griffiths in this report calls it unprecedented: “I cannot think of an example of an agreement mediated between the two warring parties in the middle of a hot war producing a benefit that is attributable to global welfare. I don't think that has happened before.” Russia, Ukraine reach agreement to resume grain shipments 07/23/2022:

At least at first glance, this means that Putin‘s government may not be operating exclusively on obsessive motives of conquest as the New Cold War hawks insist. It also means that Ukraine‘s government may be applying more pragmatic standards than their scolding of EU countries for not immediately cutting off all energy business with Russia implies.

This is why everyone (especially Congress, as unlikely as they are to actually do it) should be asking the Biden Administration to clarify what its war aims are, even though ”information war“ requirements of the moment means the US can‘t admit to participating in a ”proxy war“ with Russia because that‘s what the Other Side is calling it. .

The goal of weakening Russia to the point it is incapable of launching another invasion like in February is much more expansive than restoring Ukrainian sovereignty or restoring the pre-February status quo. Is a grain-embargo relief agreement consistent with *the US* goal? Because the famine from the embargo will hit places like India, Indonesia, and Sudan, not Norh America. Just like a winter of severe heating shortages will hit EU countries much harder than the US while providing more business for US energy corporations.

It sounds grand to say that this is a new Cold War between Democracy and Autocracy. But famine and energy supplies are big parts of the mix. And at some point we can expect both Ukraine and Russia to have had enough of the war. Will Ukraine’s government have lower minimum goals for a peace agreement than DefSec Austin? And what does the US do then? Stage a coup in Ukraine? It turns out once again that wars are complicated…

Then the following day, we get this: Missile strikes hit key Ukrainian port day after grain deal Euronews 07/23/2022

This is an early report on the Russian strikes from Deutsche Welle: Ukraine reports Russian strikes on Odesa: What it means for the grain deal DW News 07/23/2022:

Initial diplomatic responses were, of course, varied: Reactions to Russia's strike on Ukraine's Odesa port Reuters 07/23/2022. It remains to be seen whether this actually torpedoes the grain deal or not.

And as of this writing, it appears that Zelensky's government still sees the possibility of going forward with the agreement. (Ukraine presses ahead with efforts to restart grain exports from Odesa Guardian 07/24/2022):

Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov said on Facebook “we continue technical preparations for the launch of exports of agricultural products from our ports”.

Public broadcaster Suspilne quoted the Ukrainian military as saying the missiles had not significantly damaged the port.

Ines Eisele writes of the agreement (Ukraine-Krieg und Getreide: fünf Fakten Deutsche Welle 07/22/2022; my translation):

As part of the agreement reached in Turkey, the 20 to 25 million tons of grain currently blocked in Ukraine should finally be able to be exported. The export of Russian grain and fertilizer - which is limited in the course of the sanctions against Russia - is also to be facilitated again.

Among other things, the agreement provides for secured corridors in the Black Sea between Ukraine and the Bosporus. Ships and ports involved should then not be attacked. The export of the grain is to be monitored by a control center in Istanbul, which will be led by the United Nations and staffed by representatives of Russia, Ukraine and Turkey.

For global food security, the agreement between Ukraine and Russia is good and important news. Their grain is urgently needed on the world market - especially in Asia and Africa. In the wake of Russia's war of aggression in Ukraine, the United Nations had meanwhile warned of the biggest food crisis in decades. [my emphasis]

The agreement is specific to port facilities. It's not clear at this writing whether the Russian attack technically violated this agreement. It's safe to presume that the timing of the attack involved some kind of diplomatic testing, coming as it did a day after the grain agreement was concluded.