Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists warns that belittling the risks of Russian nukes in Ukraine may not be the best idea
Stephen Cimbala and Lawrence Korb warn that when people - like historian Timothy Snyder in particular - brush off the risk of a nuclear escalation by Russia in their current war against Ukraine, they may not be thinking this through as carefully as they should.1
The note that loose talk by Western officials about Putin’s regime falling as a result of the war with Ukraine may be unnecessarily raising Russian officials’ perception of the consequences of military setbacks inside Ukraine. It’s worth remembering that a few weeks after the beginning of the war, President Biden said of Putin, "For God's sake, this man cannot remain in power."2 It was (maybe intentionally) unclear wehter it was a policy statement or one of Biden’s famous gaffes.
They also remind us that the conflict involves Russian planes making risky and provocative moves such as “dangerous fly-bys, jinking and spoofing the opposition with provocative aeronautics and near-miss collisions” that could cause dangerous incidents.
And they recall the actual and still very relevant experience of the Cuban Missile Crisis:
The majority of [the Russians’] so-called tactical nuclear weapons are actually assigned to the Russian navy instead of the ground or air forces. Therefore, the possibility of incidents at sea involving one or more nuclear-armed combatants cannot be ruled out. Russia’s recent escalation of its war against civilian shipping in the Black Sea, aiming to deprive Ukraine of its grain exports, creates additional risks of a Russia–Ukraine or NATO–Russia contretemps at sea. Presumably Russian (and NATO) nuclear weapons are kept under positive controls even after having been deployed with forward forces. But sometimes navy admirals and captains are not as easily tethered to higher-echelon micromanagement as are leaders in other branches of the armed services. It is important to remember that, during the Cuban missile crisis of 1962, a Soviet submarine commander almost fired a nuclear armed torpedo in response to US depth charges; he was stopped by the executive officer on the boat, whose concurrence was required. [my emphasis]
The bottom line for Cimbala and Korb is:
Russian nuclear threats should not paralyze Ukrainian or NATO determination to persevere in the conventional war, which has existential stakes for Western democracy. But Western leaders should also remember that war is the least predictable of human activities, and nuclear war has unacceptable and irreversible consequences for all of humanity.
Meanwhile, there is a real possibility that continued US funding for Ukraine’s military efforts is at risk, not least because of cult leader Donald Trump’s view of Ukraine. Which, like most if not all of Trump’s views on anything, could turn out to be very volatile:
[Trump] has regarded the downfall of his 2016 campaign chairman Paul Manafort and subsequent accusations of Russian meddling as the product of byzantine conspiracies orchestrated by the Ukrainian government. That paranoia led him to dispatch his attorney Rudy Giuliani to Kyiv to push the government to manufacture dirt on the Biden family in exchange for weapons deliveries; the effort resulted in his first impeachment.
Apart from creating a level of paranoia in Kyiv about U.S. politics, that episode also stoked suspicion of Ukraine within the Republican Party as a potentially hostile domestic political actor. …
“This is about getting even,” [Aaron David] Miller, [of] the Carnegie Endowment …, told TPM. “And I think our allies are right to be worried, and the adversaries are quite right to be delighted, particularly Putin.”3 [my emphasis]
Cimbala, Stephen & Korb, Lawrence (2023): Putin’s “bluff”: a cautionary note about underestimating the possibility of nuclear escalation in Ukraine. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 10/02/2023. <https://thebulletin.org/2023/10/putins-bluff-a-cautionary-note-about-underestimating-the-possibility-of-nuclear-escalation-in-ukraine/> (Accessed: 2023-07-10).
Shivaram, Deepa (2022): Biden says of Putin: 'For God's sake, this man cannot remain in power'. NPR 03/26/2022. <https://www.npr.org/2022/03/26/1089014039/biden-says-of-putin-for-gods-sake-this-man-cannot-remain-in-power> (Accessed: 2023-07-10).
Kovensky, Josh (2023): How House Republicans Fought Ukraine Aid Like They Fight The Social Safety Net. TPM 10/07/2023. <https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/how-house-republicans-fought-ukraine-like-they-fight-the-social-safety-net> (Accessed: 2023-07-10).