Can we get serious about Ukraine and the EU?

This is an interesting interview. Not because the DW News interviewer asked sensible questions. But because he carries on like some typical American hack TV commentator insisting on focusing on the political polemic of the moment, whether or not it makes sense or has anything to do with the nominal topic.

Tim Sebastian is the interviewer, and his guest is Katarina Barley, a vice-president of the European Parliament and a German Social Democrat. The nominal topic is EU countries’ support for Ukraine in its war with Russia. Generally, DW News reporting and interviews are considerable above the standard of, say, the Sunday morning network talk shows in the US. (Although that’s “damning with faint praise,” I know!) But this guy makes Chuck Todd look like a sharp-as-a-tack investigative journalist.

But all Sebastian really seems to wants to talk about is the corruption scandal in the European Parliament that has been making headline recently. Two members of the Parliament are currently in jail over the scandal that involves alleged bribes from Qatar.¹ The fact that Eva Kaili, a Greek independent member and one of the leading figures in the scandal, has a glamorous mediagenic image no doubt contributes to hack reporters preferring to talk about that instead of boo-ooring stuff like Ukrainian aspirations for EU membership.

Sebastian’s basic position from which he poses his questions is that since there is a scandal involving some members of parliaments, it’s obviously ridiculous for the EU to be putting any conditions whatsoever on Ukraine joining the EU right away.

Yes, it’s really that dumb. A few politicians suspected of taking bribes, OMG!! How many decades has it been since that happened in a European parliament?! Obviously that’s way more important than taking 30 minutes to prep for an interview about how this whole “EU membership” thing works.!

Barley actually does a good job of keeping the focus on EU membership for Ukraine and European support for Ukraine despite Sebastian’s best efforts to the contrary. What she says is very clear and actually very straightforward. European countries have actually done a surprisingly effective job of supporting Ukraine since the war began in February of last year. But membership in the EU is a different challenge and one that can’t happen overnight.

She rightly notes that the EU granted Ukraine candidate status “in a speed that was never seen before.” And she states accurately and straightforwardly, Ukraine “is a big country and acceding [to] the European Union is something that we will then, all together, have to live with for a long time. So it has to be done carefully.” She goes on to say that the EU accepted both Ukraine and Moldova as candidate countries even though both countries acknowledge that they don’t even meet the official criteria to be accepted as candidates.

But Sebastian just keeps badgering her about why the EU isn’t giving Ukraine anything and everything they want without delay. At one point early in the interview, he says he is asking a question on Ukraine’s behalf. (Yes, an odd comment for a journalist not on some version of FOX News.) And he really does sound like he’s just cheerleading for whatever Ukraine’s current public position is.

Barley soon realizes that Sebastian is either playing dumb or is actually dumb on the subject, so she explains for the viewers that their are stringent political (democratic), judicial, and economic criteria involved in joining the EU. But he keeps on in the same vein for another 20 minutes. Just after 6:00 in the video, she clearly adopts a what-the-hell-is-going-on-her mode, saying (politely):

Look, I can repeat the same facts all over again. What the Ukraine is being granted is something that, firstly, has never been done before. And, secondly, is something that is being really seen and rewarded from the [EU] officials. And, thirdly it goes in line with a support in this war situation that is unprecedented. And I don’t know any official from Ukraine who would deny this.

In other words, she tells him he’s talking blather that’s disconnected from even the position of Ukrainian officials on whose behalf he says he’s speaking. So she begins talking to him the way a teacher might talk to a high school student who is obviously not grasping basic points about the subject. And, I would say, rightly so.

But because he questions are so superficial and dumb, the viewers don’t get to hear as much about the actual politics and practices of the EU-Ukraine situation as that would if a competent interviewer was involved.

By 10:55, she even says, “I’ve never had a discussion like this, I have to say.”

The German think tank Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik gave this summary of Ukraine accession issues last summer:

Whenever the 27 decide to open accession negotiations with Ukraine, they will also establish a negotiating framework. In it, the Council could dovetail the accession negotiations with the ongoing association process and, optionally, with a new intermediate format. This also concerns the various instruments of these pre-accession processes, including substantial financial assistance, which needs to be adapted to the contexts of war, conflict, and reconstruction. As with the Western Balkan countries, the “fundamentals” (rule of law, independent judiciary, fight against corruption, institutional stability) will be major obstacles to accession, as will the de-oligarchisation of the economy. The security implications are also precarious, as Ukraine will not become a NATO member for the foreseeable future, and the EU cannot assist it militarily in its current state.²

The “security implications” are also related to the fact that the EU treaty includes a mutual-defense clause. Similarly to NATO, new member countries have to meet minimum standards on defense capability. And making Ukraine a full EU member while the war is still going on would effectively be a declaration of war by EU countries against Russia. And since most EU members are also NATO members, which would mean NATO would also be at war with Russia.

That’s just not going to happen in any short-run scenario. (But don’t bother trying to explain that to Tim Sebastian!)

Katarina Barley notes that Ukraine has 45 million inhabitants which would make it the third largest country in the Union. It will face enormous reconstruction tasks. And it will be entering a free-trade zone for which its economy is not yet prepared.

The notion that this will happen any time in the 2020s is unrealistic. Probably also the 2030s. And Ukraine is currently at the very beginning of the process, i.e., its application for “candidate status” has been accepted.

Ukraine was granted candidate status in June to join the 27-member bloc four months after Russia launched its full-scale invasion, in a move hailed by Zelenskiy as "historic" at the time, although negotiations can take years.

After the official start of negotiations, the European Commission will have to assess whether Kyiv meets the criteria for EU membership in terms of good governance, corruption eradication, democratic freedoms, and the rule of law.

The process often takes more than five years. Negotiations with Turkey and the Western Balkans have come to a standstill amid numerous obstacles.³

Ukraine’s Prime Minister, Denys Shmyhal, this year expressed a goal of full EU membership for Ukraine within two years. As Suzanne Lynch puts it, “The problem? No one within the EU thinks this is realistic.“⁴

French President Emmanuel Macron said last year it could be “decades” before Ukraine joins. Even EU leaders, who backed granting Ukraine candidate status at their summit last June, privately admit that the prospect of the country actually joining is quite some years away (and may be one reason they backed the idea in the first place.) After all, candidate countries like Serbia, Turkey and Montenegro have been waiting for many years, since 1999 in Ankara’s case. …

Ukraine’s close allies in the EU such as Poland and the Baltic countries strongly support Kyiv’s membership push, seeing it as a democracy resisting an aggressor. Many of the EU old guard are far more wary, however, as Ukraine — a global agricultural superpower — could dilute their own powers and perks. Ukraine and Poland — with a combined population of 80 million — could team up to rival Germany as a political force in the European Council and some argue Kyiv would be an excessive drain on the EU budget.

1. Haeck, Peiter (2023): Qatargate: MEPs Eva Kaili, Marc Tarabella to stay in jail longer. Politico EU 030/3/2023. <https://www.politico.eu/article/qatargate-eva-kaili-marc-tarabella-stay-jail/> (Accessed: 2023-05-03).

2. Lippert, Barbara (2022): The EU and the second large-scale Eastern enlargement – déjà vu and innovations. In: Von Ondarza, Nicolai (coordinator), Ukraine’s possible EU accession and its consequences 22-July-2022. <https://www.swp-berlin.org/en/publication/ukraines-possible-eu-accession-and-its-consequences> (Accessed 2023-05-03).

3. European Parliament Chief Says Talks On Ukraine's EU Membership Should Start 'This Year'Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty 03.04.2023. <https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-european-union-membership-talks-metsola/32299247.html> (Accessed 2023-05-03).

4. Lynch, Suzanne (2023): Ukraine wants to join EU within two years, PM says. Politico EU 01/30/2023. <https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-eu-membership-two-years-prime-minister-denys-shmyhal/> (Accessed 2023-05-03).