China's diplomatic efforts on the Russia-Ukraine War

Alexander Gabuev and Bonny Lin recently discussed China’s diplomatic peace maneuvers over the Russia-Ukraine War.¹

For decades to come, we can expect the US, China, and Russia to be the three biggest players in the now-multipolar world order. So it is important to pay realistic attention to what China is saying and doing.

In a recent article for Foreign Affairs, Lin describes China’s diplomatic framework in this situation:

These events have thrown a spotlight on Beijing’s struggles to balance its conflicting objectives in Ukraine. China aims to prioritize its relations with Russia, its strongest strategic partner, which has biased its position on the conflict in favor of its neighbor. At the same time, Beijing wishes to ensure that Europe does not join an anti-China bloc — an increasingly important goal given Chinese policymakers’ growing pessimism that they can prevent the deterioration of U.S.-Chinese relations. These concerns have led China to try to cast itself as neutral and limit some of its support for Russia. As the war drags on, however, Beijing is finding that this position is increasingly difficult to sustain and that the conflict is weakening its closest strategic partner while complicating China’s security environment.² [my emphasis]

She speculates, “China’s efforts are likely to be high-profile but slow in delivering results.“ And she provides background on China’s evolving assessments of the Russia-Ukraine War.

China’s focus on maintaining its relationship to Europe will continue to be a big factor in this situation.

1. How Does China Want the War in Ukraine to End? The Foreign Affairs Interview. Foreign Affairs YouTube channel 05/18/2023.

2. Lin, Bonny (2023): Can China Thread the Needle on Ukraine? Foreign Affairs 05/17/2023. <https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/can-china-thread-needle-ukraine> (Accessed: 2023-19-05).