Fire over the Kremlin: Ukrainian drone attack? Russian "false flag" operation? Careless fun with fireworks? Parsing the Ukrainian-drones-over-the-Kremlin story
The Russian government’s claim that Ukraine with the approval of the US sent drones to attack the Kremlin with the goal of assassinating Vladimir Putin can serve as an example of how regular citizens and news consumers can go about parsing such a story.
[This post has been updated to indicate that it was a single explosion that was reported.]
The story has been widely covered by various media. So there are numerous reports and analysis that readers and news consumers can compare. Here’s a report from Al Jazeera1:
It presents the Russian claim itself as well as critical looks at it.
It’s possible that Ukraine could have sent drones to attack the Kremlin. But it seems unlikely that their drones would make such an attack with the goal of destroying the Kremlin building and killing Putin himself in the process. It would take a lot more firepower than what was on display to obliterate the entire Kremlin.
But what is behind it, and can Ukrainian drones reach Moscow at all? The short answer: probably not. The unsatisfactory long version: it depends. It depends on what you classify as a drone in the first place.2
There was some kind of action above the Kremlin involving an explosion and fire that were seen by members of the public and filmed. It reportedly took several hours before the Russian government officially commented on it.
There are some fairly obvious questions to ask.
What are the sources of the information? The Kremlin is a very prominent place, and there were numerous witnesses and video evidence of a small explosion and apparently some burning material on the roof, though without doing much obvious serious damage. It’s the official residence of the Russian President, so the fact there is video of the attack (or whatever it was) is entirely unsurprising.
What was the Russian government’s immediate reaction? The delay in the public response seems odd. That could indicate that what happened was actually a surprise. If the government itself staged the stunt, it could mean that they wanted it to look like a surprise. Since there appears to have been no major damage, there’s seems to be nothing obviously odd about a delayed public statement.
Does the Russian claim of a Ukrainian attack make sense? Maybe. If the Ukrainians wanted to stage a stunt using some of their smaller drones that wouldn’t be capable of doing any serious damage, or if they were able to launch drones from somewhere nearby. Since the visual evidence looks a bit like somebody being careless shooting off holiday fireworks, it’s also not obvious why the Ukrainian government would bother.
Does the Russian claim of American backing for the attack make sense? Not obviously. The US itself has far more options to do damage and sabotage to Russia than a surprise minor fireworks display over the Kremlin. Again, what would be the point? Why bother?
Might Russian officials actually be serious in the claim that Ukraine did it? Maybe. Here I.F. Stone’s guideline for processing wartime news is very relevant: "All governments lie, but disaster lies in wait for countries whose officials smoke the same hashish they give out."3 So it's always possible. We'll see if any credible evidence is forthcoming.
Could it be have been staged by the Russians in order to make such a claim? Always possible. The insurrectionist Trumpistas in the US have pretty much ruined the term “false flag operation,” i.e., incidents staged to make it look like somebody else did it. Although it has never been clearly documented publicly, Western biographers and analysts of Putin seem to find the assumption plausible that his new government in 1999 staged such attacks to provide justification and generate support for what became the Second Chechen War:
Come August 1999, enter Vladimir Putin, Russia's newly minted prime minister and Yeltsin's chosen successor. Young and energetic, he immediately started talking tough on Chechnya, especially after a series of mysterious apartment block explosions hit Moscow and the towns of Volgodonsk and Buynaksk in September. Security at any cost and "eradicating terrorism" became top priorities for the Russians. [my emphasis]4
But staging minor fireworks above the Kremlin doesn’t really sound like a comparable scheme!
On the other hand:
[M]ore ominously, the Russian side reserves the right to respond with retaliatory measures where and when it sees fit. Later, the speaker of the Russian parliament, Vyacheslav Volodin, said that the "Kyiv regime" must “be destroyed" in the face of the action.5
Do weird and quirky things happen? Among the creatures known as the human race, the answer is: yes, all the time. A famous example:
Mathias Rust (born 1 June 1968) is a German aviator known for his flight that ended with a landing near Red Square in Moscow on 28 May 1987. A teenage amateur pilot, he flew from Helsinki, Finland, to Moscow, being tracked several times by Soviet Air Defence Forces and civilian air traffic controllers, as well as Soviet Air Force interceptor aircraft. The Soviet fighters did not receive permission to shoot him down, and his aeroplane was mistaken for a friendly aircraft several times. He landed on Bolshoy Moskvoretsky Bridge, next to Red Square near the Kremlin in the capital of the Soviet Union.6
The hawkish-leaning Institute for the Study of War (ISW) calls it “likely” that the Kremlin incident was staged by the Russian government.7 The ISW also reports:
The Russian Investigative Committee announced that it opened a criminal case “on the fact of a terrorist attack in connection with an attempt to strike the Kremlin” and further amplified the claim that Kyiv is to blame for the strike. Russian President Vladimir Putin will reportedly hold a Security Council meeting to discuss the incident on May 5. Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev called for the “physical elimination” of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in retaliation for the strike. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov baselessly claimed that the US is behind the attack. Several Russian authorities, including the heads of Moscow, St. Petersburg, Leningrad, and Pskov oblasts introduced bans on drone launches and flights.8
The Russian government is claiming the Ukrainians did it (with US backing) using "Ukrainian terrorists": "We consider this to be a planned terrorist attack."9
The Ukrainian government denies it had anything to do with it.10
So does the US government.11
Did Ukraine launch a drone attack on the Kremlin? Inside Story. Al Jazeera English YouTube channel.
Zellinger, Peter (2023): Welche Drohnen der Ukraine den Kreml erreichen können – und welche nicht. Der Standard 04.05.2023. <https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000146125372/welche-drohnen-der-ukraine-den-kreml-erreichen-koennen-und-welche> (Accessed: 2023-04-05). My translations from the German.
Stone, I.F. (1967): In a Time of Torment, 1961-1967 (1967), p. 317. Quoted from: I. F. Stone. Wikipedia 03/06/2022. <https://en.wikiquote.org/w/index.php?title=I._F._Stone&oldid=3083163> (Accessed: 2023-29-04).
Eggert, Konstantin (2019): Russia still lives in the shadow of the Chechen war. Deutsche Welle 09/30/2019. <https://www.dw.com/en/opinion-russia-still-lives-in-the-shadow-of-the-chechen-war/a-50609732> (Accessed: 2023-05-05).
Mathias Rust. Wikipedia 03/30/2023 <https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Mathias_Rust&oldid=1147359231> (Accessed: 2023-05-05).
Ehrenhöfer, Margit (2023): Der Standard 03.05.2023. <https://www.derstandard.at/jetzt/livebericht/2000146065653/ukraine-verlaengert-kriegsrecht?responsive=false> (Accessed: 2023-04-05).
Askew, Joshua (2023): Russia 'likely staged' Kremlin drone attack, claims ISW. Euronews 04/05/2023. <https://www.euronews.com/2023/05/03/president-vladimir-putin-unharmed-following-an-attempted-drone-strike-on-the-the-kremlin-m> (Accessed: 2023-04-05).
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 4, 2023. Instiute for the Study of War 05/04/2023. <https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Offensive%20Campaign%20Assessment%2C%20May%204%2C%202023%20PDF.pdf> (Accessed: 2023-05-05).
Escher, Manuel (2023): Russlands Regierung wirft Ukraine versuchten Anschlag auf Präsident Putin vor. Der Standard 03.05.2023 <https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000146092418/russlands-regierung-wirft-ukraine-versuchten-anschlag-auf-praesident-putin-vor> (Accessed: 2023-04-05).
Zelenskyy denies Ukraine tried to kill Putin in Moscow drone attack. Politico EU 05/03/2023. <https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-tried-to-kill-putin-in-drone-attack-kremlin-claims/> (Accessed: 2023-04-05).
Kremlin ‘lying’ about U.S. involvement in Moscow drone strikes, officials say. Politico EU 05/04/2023. <https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/04/moscow-drone-strikes-kremlin-kirby-00095266> (Accessed: 2023-04-05).