Is the Biden Administration trying to restrain Netanyahu from embarking on a disastrous invasion of Gaza?
Is the Biden Administration trying to restrain Netanyahu from embarking on a disastrous invasion of Gaza?
Official government statements and less formal leaks, especially around wars, are directed at multiple audiences. The multiplicity of audiences for issues affecting Israel is especially large.
The Administration is sending signals that they would like to restrain Israel from a ground invasion of Gaza. Presumably they are also calibrating what they say about Israel with Ukraine in mind. In the case of Ukraine, their current message is, we’re backing you in the war for as long as it takes to win - unless we decide that Ukraine is “at the end of the rope.”1
In the case of the current situation in Israel-Palestine, the message currently is, we’re backing Israel 150% - but we’re we also don’t really want to see a mass atrocity against civilians in Gaza or a regional war involving Israel, the Palestinians, Lebanon, Syria, Iran and God-knows-who-else.
But we also can’t forget that there is always a constituency in Washington for war with Iran!2
The message of restraint is also important on the eastern front, because they surely don’t want Taiwan to be engaging in loose-cannon behavior right now.
Even if the Administration is basically going to follow the policy in the Hamas-Israel war that it has followed diplomatically with Israel up until now, the official US strategic priority is containing China. So they also have to signal to China that we're not too distracted by Ukraine and whatever is about to happen in the Middle East to keep up pressure on China.
Alan Pinkas argues that the Biden Administration, despite some of the initial broad statements of solidarity with Israel, actually seems to be putting pressure on Netanyahu’s government to not stage mass slaughter in Gaza. Or at least trying to give a public impression that’s what they are doing. “The Americans want to deter escalation, not be party to another Mideast entanglement and get dragged into a war.”3
He distinguishes between “vertical” and “horizontal” escalation. In this context, vertical escalation is about “the intensity, firepower and scope of Israel’s Gaza retaliation and whether it will involve a ground operation.” Horizontal escalation would be even more of an immediate nightmare for current US policy, “a geographical expansion of the conflict to include Hezbollah in Lebanon.“ We could add Syria and Iran to that list.
Again, the US success in preventing such an escalation is also something that will affect US policy with Ukraine. The Administration has always been careful to manage aid to Ukraine to minimize the chance they might provoke a much more aggressive Russian response - much to the dismay of the hardcore anti-Russia hawks.
Starting with Biden’s speech last Tuesday, the Americans has [sic] reiterated five times its request that whatever the intensity, scope and duration of Israel’s response in Gaza, it must be in accordance with “the rule of law,” however justified it is.
On Sunday, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that “the many, many Palestinians who have had nothing to do with the brutal terrorist organization – the vast majority of the population of Gaza – they deserve dignity. They deserve safety and security.”
And in Cairo, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken listed the Americans’ four relevant goals: supporting Israel; preventing the spread of war; securing the release of hostages; and addressing the humanitarian crisis that exists in Gaza. Note the present tense “exists.” [my emphasis]
In his statement on Sunday4, Blinken said, "The way that Israel does this matters. It needs to do it in a way that affirms the shared values that we have for human life and human dignity taking every possible precaution to avoid harming civilians."
This is clearly meant to state that for the US government, Palestinian Lives Matter.
How serious the Biden Administration really is about that remains to be seen. There is no real doubt that it is not the orientation of the Natanyahu government.
Gideon Levy is emphatic about what the impending invasion would mean:
If this mission is in fact carried out, and Israel turns the Gaza Strip upside-down on its rulers and inhabitants, it will be etched for generations into the consciousness of the Arab world, the Muslim world, and the Third World. A second Nakba [mass expulsion of Palestinians] would prevent hundreds of millions of people around the world from accepting Israel. There could be some Arab regimes that at first would exercise restraint, but public opinion in their countries would not permit that restraint to continue.
The price would be paid by Israel, and it will be steeper than Israel currently thinks. Israel is about to embark on a catastrophic war – or it might have already done so.5 [my emphasis]
And he suggests the right way of thinking of this as Israel’s 9/11 moment, which is that they still have a chance to avoid the mistakes the US made in response to the Al-Qaida attacks in 2001:
Israel is embarking on a military operation that is dangerous and without a prospect of gain. It can ask its ally in Washington what America’s senseless wars waged for regime change around the world produced. About how many people were needlessly killed and who took power through the American sword. But we don’t need America or even to think about the Palestinians’ catastrophe to understand that we are at the threshold of a historic disaster for Israel as well. [my emphasis]
Rai, Arpan (2023): White House warns Israel crisis is stretching its ability to support Ukraine: ‘Running out of runway’. Independent 10/13/2023. <https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/us-politics/biden-ukraine-israel-gaza-b2429401.html> (Accessed: 2023-16-10).
Klippenstein, Ken (2023): 4 Ways the Pentagon Is Risking Escalation in Israel. Ken Klippenstein (Substack) 10/16/2023. <https://www.kenklippenstein.com/p/4-ways-the-pentagon-is-risking-escalation> (Accessed: 2023-16-10).
Pinkas, Alon (2023): Biden Wants to Avoid Escalation in Israel, Not Join a War. Haaretz 10/16/2023. <https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-10-16/ty-article/.premium/biden-wants-to-avoid-escalation-in-israel-not-join-a-war/0000018b-37a6-d051-a1cb-3fffe2ae0000> (Accessed: 2023-16-10).
Blinken speaks to reporters in Cairo ahead of Israel's expected ground offensive in Gaza. CBS News YouTube channel 10/15/2023. (Accessed: 2023-16-10).
Levy, Gideon (2023): A Ground Invasion of Gaza Is a Disaster Foretold. Haaretz 10/15/2023. <https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/2023-10-15/ty-article/.premium/a-ground-invasion-of-gaza-is-a-disaster-foretold/0000018b-2f40-d450-a3af-6f5cc0ef0000> (Accessed: 2023-16-10).