Israel and the US. And Iran. And Syria. And Gaza and the West Bank.

The phase of the Middle East nightmare that began on October 7, 2023 continues to get worse.

Trump’s Special Envoy to Everywhere Steve Witkoff’s negotiations with Iran over a new nuclear-arm agreement have been making progress. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is disturbed about this because he has been trying for decades to get the US to go to war with Iran to turn it into a failed state.

Netanyahu said … that a deal would only work if Iran’s nuclear facilities were blown up, “under American supervision with American execution”. He also called for a “Libya-style agreement”, a reference to Muammar Gaddafi’s voluntary dismantlement of his nuclear programme under international supervision. But Iran senses that Netanyahu is losing influence with Trump over the nuclear file.¹

Trump in his first time unilaterally pulled the US out of the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) nuclear agreement with Iran even though the agreement made under the Obama Administration was working well. Iran is now much closer to being able to make fissile material for a nuclear weapon. Peace President Trump said he could get an even better deal by sanctions, threats, and bluster. Although as Marco Carnelos reports:

Even the more modest scholars of Iranian affairs know that proposing a dialogue with Tehran by using threats tends to achieve the opposite of the intended effect. But despite decades of direct and indirect diplomacy with Tehran, US policymakers, regardless of their political affiliations, still struggle to grasp this concept.

Trump’s goal of reopening talks with Iran is certainly laudable, although it ignores the inconvenient truth that had he not reneged in 2018 on the Obama-era nuclear deal, there would be no need for an entirely new set of negotiations - and Iran’s stock of enriched uranium would be a fraction of what it is today. The country is now on the threshold of a nuclear weapons programme.²

The Peace President in 2020 also carried out an assassination of Gen. Qasem Soleimani, the top military leader who was then regarded as the second most powerful official in Iran.³ The Peace President even carried out the strike while Soleimani was in Iraq, which was and is supposedly a friendly country to the US.

When it comes to diplomacy, Trump hasn’t exactly shown himself to be the new Klemens von Metternich. When it comes to an Iran nuclear deal, “Trump has left the United States with hardly any nuclear experts in office – actually, with hardly any experts in office.”⁴ That seems like it could be kind of a problem.

Meanwhile, as Carnelos also notes, “The US administration has sent mixed signals on its desire for rapprochement with Iran, indicating on one hand that it is open to reopening nuclear talks, and on the other, continuing a major military buildup in the Middle East - a possible prelude to military strikes on Iranian nuclear and missile facilities.”

Netanyahu has been pushing the US since back during the Cheney-Bush Administration to attack Iran. It has been a long-term goal of his. Chuck Freilich reports:

U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly stated his preference for a deal with Iran, but has warned that the U.S. may take military action should Iran rebuff an agreement. "Israel," he further stated, "will obviously be very much involved – it'll be the leader of that." One would expect the global superpower to lead, not hide in Israel's far more limited strategic shadow, although to be fair, Trump, has backed up his words with a massive military presence in the region.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, long renowned for his understated rhetoric and policy objectives [Freilich is being sarcastic here], declared that a "deal with Iran is acceptable only if the nuclear sites are destroyed…otherwise the military option is the only choice." Some believe that what he really hopes is that a military strike will lead to the Islamic Republic's collapse.

In practice, the prospects of Iran agreeing to fully destroy its nuclear program, rather than reimposing various limitations, are slim to nonexistent. And, of course, no one knows if and when regime change will take place.⁵ [my emphasis]

We’ve seen how well Trump handled his tariff rollout.

Now imagine him in charge of a full-on regime-change war against Iran.

How are things going in Syria?

Natanyahu’s government is pushing forward stealing land in Syria and trying to keep the nation in as close to a failed-state condition as it can.

As it resumes military operations in the Gaza Strip, Israel has expanded its ground incursions across southern Syria in recent weeks, while also launching airstrikes throughout the country — from Latakia and Homs to rural Damascus. In a major attack on March 25, Israeli forces shelled Koya, a small village in the Yarmouk Valley in Deraa Governorate, leaving at least six dead. …

The attack on Koya was among the deadliest since Israel invaded Syria some four months ago. On Dec. 8, just hours after the collapse of former Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad’s regime, Israeli forces moved swiftly to seize abandoned mountaintop checkpoints, occupying territory in violation of the 1974 agreement.

Since then, Israeli warplanes have conducted near-daily flights and struck Assad’s former military sites — 600 attacks in the first eight days of military operations. Meanwhile, ground troops have advanced 12 miles into Syrian territory, building at least nine military bases and expanding road networks and other communications infrastructure.⁶

Meanwhile, the Turkish government backs the new Syrian government under President Ahmed al-Sharaa, which promises that really-we’re-not-Muslim-jihadists that Türkiye helped fight its way into power in Damascus. The neocon-leaning Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD) says, “To further Turkish goals of using Syria to regionally project power, Ankara is promoting the new Syrian government as moderate. However, both al-Sharaa and [his governing group] HTS [Hay’at Tahrir Al -Sham] appropriately remain on U.S. and UN terrorism blacklists because of their deep historic ties to al-Qaeda.”⁷ While I would never accept FDD’s analysis on anything without verifying it from a reliable source, they aren’t wrong in that particular claim.

Turkey and Israel are not on the best of terms, despite Türkiye being a NATO member. Al-Sharaa’s government has been cultivating closer relations with Azerbaijan and also with Libya (the latter currently in sad shape):

Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa met with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and pushed for trilateral cooperation with Turkey and Azerbaijan on Friday at a forum in the Turkish city of Antalya. He also held his first meeting with Libya’s prime minister since taking power.

Sharaa is visiting Turkey to participate in the Antalya Diplomacy Forum that will run until Sunday. He met Aliyev on the sidelines of the meeting, Syria’s official SANA news agency reported.

The official Azerbaijani Press Agency reported that Sharaa and Aliyev discussed opportunities to work together on energy, infrastructure and security, as well as the “potential for developing a trilateral cooperation framework between Azerbaijan, Syria, and Turkiye.” Sharaa accepted an invitation to visit Azerbaijan, according to the agency. …

Azerbaijan is rich in oil and was the 19th-largest exporter of crude petroleum in 2023, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity. Syria’s ability to refine its own crude oil has been severely weakened by the civil war that ended last December, and the country is suffering from fuel shortages. War-era US sanctions that target Syria’s energy industry, among other sectors, remain in place.⁸ [my emphasis]

Zvi Bar’el describes Türkiye’s perspective as follows. He reports that Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan recently talked publicly about establishing a serious of military agreements:

… whose aim would mainly be to prevent conflicts, including a direct air confrontation in Syria involving Israel, the United States, Turkey and Russia. He did not, however, address the possibility of such agreements actually coming to fruition.

On the other hand, Fidan's remarks about the need to prevent a direct aerial confrontation, an expression unheard of in the diplomatic and military discourse between Israel and Turkey, could indicate the nadir to which bilateral relations have deteriorated. [my emphasis] [Haaretz hasn’t yet adopted the now-standard English spelling of “Türkiye.”]⁹

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has some ambitions plans, as Bar’el describes:

Since the fall of the Assad regime last December, Turkey has been conducting intensive discussions with Syria's new leaders on a defense agreement that would include not only the supply of military equipment, technology and intelligence but also the training and coaching of the new Syrian army, development of combat doctrine and modernization of combat procedures. Most importantly, it would involve the establishment of a joint Turkish-Syrian military.

It appears that behind the plan to rebuild the Syrian army, Turkey sees Syria as a strategic lever for enhancing its regional position. According to an Al-Jazeera report based on Syrian sources, Turkey wants to establish a regional military network, with Iraq and Jordan acting as partners alongside Syria. The declared goal is to fight ISIS, which has recently begun stepping up its activities while taking advantage of the confusion and the new Syrian regime's struggle to assert control in the country.

But I’m sure the Peace President’s Special Envoy to Everywhere Witkoff will sort this all out just as soon as he concludes the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement.

Despite the Peace President’s previous declaration that the ISIS jihadist group had been defeated, Türkiye expects a rebuilt Syrian army to play a key role in fighting them. And also “wants to establish a regional military network, with Iraq and Jordan acting as partners alongside Syria.” Apparently, Erdoğan has reached an agreement with the Kurdish quasi-autonomous government of Rojava to leave them alone. Since Rojava is a bright spot for democracy in the area at the moment, that will be good news if it’s so.

But Erdoğan clearly does not want to see the kind of weak and vulnerable Syria that Israel would prefer to have.

Ynet News reported on Monday:

The crisis with Turkey is only the latest flare-up in a long-standing, deteriorating relationship. Erdogan’s recent Ramadan address included a call for “Allah to destroy Zionist Israel,” a statement some saw as an attempt to distract from domestic political turmoil following the arrest of opposition leader Ekrem İmamoğlu.

At the same time, Netanyahu has reportedly lobbied U.S. officials to block the sale of F-35 fighter jets to Turkey. Meanwhile, Hamas continues to plan attacks from its Ankara-based headquarters, which operates under Turkish protection. One recently uncovered cell in Nablus planned a series of major attacks, raising further concerns in Jerusalem.¹⁰

Even a Metternich would find this a tangled web to weave!

Gaza and the West Bank

Annelle Sheline is a State Department official who left over disagreement with the Biden Administration’s policy of essentially unconditional support for Israel’s war on the civilians of Gaza along with a seemingly secondary focus on fighting Hamas as such. She talks about the human rights issues of the US in that support in this interview with Owen Jones¹¹:

Sheline also prepared a policy brief for the Quincy Institute on how the US for decades has sidelined laws restricting arms sales to countries with bad human rights practices.¹²

The nightmare in Gaza continues to kill large number of Palestinians civilians. And Israel has been expanding ethnic cleansing of Palestinians in the West Bank. All with the full support of Peace President Trump’s Administration, of course.

As Dahlia Scheindlin explains:

Since the IDF began a major military operation in the heart of Palestinian cities in the West Bank in January, observers have begun to worry that Israel is replicating its vast destruction of the Gaza Strip there. The concerns take various linguistic forms including turning the West Bank into a "second Gaza," "a mini-Gaza" or "Gazafying" the area.

Right now, these observations are correct. In its operations in Jenin, Tulkarm, Nablus and the Nur Shams refugee camp – which the IDF calls Operation Iron Wall – the army has destroyed buildings and civilian infrastructure, and driven around 40,000 Palestinians out of their homes, creating a new mass crisis of displacement. The operation is ongoing.

But if the Israeli army is bringing Gaza to the West Bank, the Israeli government is bringing the West Bank to Gaza. The war in the Strip has been on a long but decisive slide from hard military aims to a fundamentally political mission. As in the West Bank, that mission is permanent control.¹³

While one of the most odious individuals in Israeli politics, Itamar Ben Gvir, is scheduled for a visit in Florida and Washington this week.

Ben Gvir is no ordinary Israeli official. The far-right minister has become a symbol of his country’s most aggressive political currents — a reputation that he earned through decades of activism in support of Jewish Israelis accused of attacks on Palestinian civilians. This, combined with his calls for annexation of Palestinian land and his backing of violent settler groups in the West Bank, led the Biden administration to boycott Ben Gvir and even consider slapping sanctions on him despite his prominent role in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet.

Luckily for Ben Gvir, there’s a new leader in Washington. President Donald Trump, far from boycotting the Israeli minister, is reportedly ready to roll out the red carpet for him.¹⁴

The deteriorating state of Israeli democracy

The fight by Netanyahu to establish a more authoritarian government continues, with its main goal still being to eliminate the independence of the judiciary and prosecutors. In this way, Netanyahu is an enthusiastic fan of the approach to government taken by Donald Trump and Hungary’s Viktor Orbán.

Netanyahu has spent months trying to fire the attorney general, a position that in Israel’s system is independent and immensely powerful. That same attorney general is now blocking Netanyahu’s attempt to also fire the head of the Shin Bet security agency, which is separately investigating his advisers over alleged illicit payments from Qatar. The Shin Bet chief has suggested he may not recognize his own dismissal — while, in a bizarre twist, Netanyahu has just sued his predecessor. With these and other actions, Netanyahu’s government has quietly revived its 2023 assault on Israel’s justice system.

A leader desperately attempting to defang the independent judiciary that forms his greatest threat; trying to bend intelligence agencies to his personal will; and working to systematically discredit every institution — and individual — that might be able to in any way check his power. Sound familiar?¹⁵

Netanyahu’s authoritarian inclinations are producing some of the proverbially strange bedfellows:

As the Prime Minister of a country that prides itself on liberal democracy, Netanyahu is doubling down on aligning with illiberal, anti-democratic world leaders who have long track records of engaging in or enabling antisemitism. The leader of the Jewish state has emboldened and excused these nefarious actors, due to their shared commitment to right-wing pro-Israelism, including support for Israeli territorial maximalism, opposition to Palestinian statehood, and impunity for the crimes of occupation. Domestically, Netanyahu has evaded responsibility for his own crimes utilizing the same illiberal practices as his global far-right counterparts. In forging these alliances, Netanyahu is abandoning Israel’s Jewish and liberal democratic values, fuelling [sic] a global movement that endangers diaspora Jewry and other targets of far-right persecution. …

Netanyahu’s friendships are not only antithetical to the founding principles of the Jewish state, they also endanger diaspora Jews and other minorities threatened by the far-right. The Israeli prime minister relies on these friendships to advance and promote his agenda of West Bank annexation, permanent occupation, and wholesale Palestinian erasure.¹⁶ [my emphasis]

Looking at the general state of Israeli politics, Abed Abou Shhadeh comments, “There is nothing normal about what’s happening in Israel right now. The idea that this madness can continue indefinitely is not just absurd; it’s dangerous.”¹⁷

Finally, Ehud Olmert, Israeli Prime Minister 2006-2009. Has a gloomy view of current political developments in Israel. He charges that Netanyahu in pursuing a “well-planned attempt by Benjamin Netanyahu to shatter Israel's democratic base.”

What has been exposed here is an open attempt to initiate a coup. It is being initiated not by demonstrators, families of hostages, or pilots who volunteer for duty, but by the gang of narrow-minded and ignorant bullies now serving in the Knesset and the government. Those who announce, publicly, that if the High Court dares rule against what the government and its members want – they will in practice repudiate its existence – boycott the court, incite against it and disrupt its sessions.

What is this if not an illegal insurrection against the foundations of democracy? …

But we are only at the first stage. In the next stage, the hooligans, whose violence is driven by the Bibi-ist poison machine, will take over TV news studios, as they threatened to do with the Supreme Court.

Hundreds of armed militiamen, armed by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, will break into TV studios (except for those housing Channel 14), to pull out Channel 12 anchor Yonit Levi and Channel 13 anchors Udi Segal and Raviv Druker, as well as other broadcasters and correspondents – and take over their microphones.¹⁸

I think it’s safe to say that Olmert is not optimistic about the state of Israeli democracy.

1. Wintour, Patrick (2025): Iran and US agree to continue nuclear talks after first indirect round. The Guardian 04/12/2025. <https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/apr/12/iran-foreign-minister-oman-us-nuclear-programme-talks> (Accessed: 2025-15-04).

2. Carnelos, Marco (2025): Iran-US tensions: There's no room for further miscalculations. Middle East Eye 04/11/2025. <https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/iran-us-tensions-theres-no-room-further-miscalculations> (Accessed: 2025-15-04).

3. Qasem Soleimani: US strike on Iran general was unlawful, UN expert says. BBC News 07/09/2020. <https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-53345885> (Accessed: 2025-15-04).

4. Harel, Amos (2025): Trump's Unseasoned 'Experts' Don't Bode Well for the U.S.' Nuclear Talks With Iran. Haaretz 04/11/2025. <https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2025-04-11/ty-article/.premium/trumps-unseasoned-experts-dont-bode-well-for-americass-nuclear-talks-with-iran/00000196-255e-d81d-a7d6-a57ff8210000> (Accessed: 2025-15-04).

5. Freilich, Chuck (2025): Netanyahu Wants to Strike Iran. But Trump's Deal May Be Better for Israel. Haaretz 04/15/2025. <https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/2025-04-15/ty-article-opinion/.premium/netanyahu-wants-to-strike-iran-but-trumps-deal-may-be-better-for-israel/00000196-38e2-d5cf-a3f6-3de6011b0000?gift=db1c3fb98f77429e8d016a753659f9b0> (Accessed: 2025-15-04).

6. Al-Salameh, Tareq (2025): In southern Syria, a violent new Israeli occupation emerges. +972 Magazine 04/10/2025. <https://www.972mag.com/southern-syria-new-israeli-occupation/> (Accessed: 2025-15-04).

7. 10 Things to Know About Turkey’s Interventions and Influence in Syria. FDD website 02/24/2025. <https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2025/02/24/10-things-to-know-about-turkeys-interventions-and-influence-in-syria/> (Accessed: 2025-15-04).

8. Lucente, Adam (2025): Syria’s Sharaa looks to boost ties with Turkey, Azerbaijan during Antalya visit. Al-Monitor 04/11/2025. <https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2025/04/syrias-sharaa-looks-boost-ties-turkey-azerbaijan-during-antalya-visit> (Accessed: 2025-15-04).

9. Bar’el, Zvi (2025): Syria Is Just the First Step in Turkey's Plan to Become a Regional Power. Haaretz 04/15/2025. <https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2025-04-15/ty-article/.premium/syria-is-just-the-first-step-in-turkeys-plan-to-become-a-regional-power/00000196-3847-d5cf-a3f6-3d47c16c0000> (Accessed: 2025-15-04).

10. Milshtein, Michael (2025): What’s behind the unprecedented tension between Israel and Turkey? Ynet News 04/13/2025. <https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hyflj9fr1l> (Accessed: 2025-15-04).

11. US Official EXPOSES Truth About Gaza From The Inside. Owen Jones YouTube channel 04/15/2025. (Accessed: 2025-15-04).

12. Sheline, Annelle (2025): Under Primacy, Weapons Sales Will Always Supersede Human Rights. Quincy Brief No. 72 (April 2025). <https://quincyinst.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/09140401/QUINCY-BRIEF-NO.-72-APRIL-2025-SHELINE.pdf>

13. Scheindlin, Dahlia (2025): How Israel Is Bringing West Bank-style Annexation to Gaza. Haaretz 04/19/2025. <https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2025-04-10/ty-article/.premium/how-israel-is-bringing-west-bank-style-annexation-to-gaza/00000196-1f3c-d78d-a1de-1f3df9aa0000?gift=a6f9dcd29a424ed49d3d4e535eeb0f1c> (Accessed: 2025-15-04).

14. Echols, Connor (2025): Is Trump orbit rolling out red carpet for Israeli extremist Ben Gvir? Responsible Statecraft 04/15/2025. <https://responsiblestatecraft.org/ben-gvir-visit-united-states/> (Accessed: 2025-15-04).

15. Perry, Dan (2025): Two would-be authoritarians, alike in attacking democracy: The Trump-Netanyahu alliance grows ever more toxic. Forward 03/20/2025. <https://forward.com/opinion/705856/netanyahu-ronen-bar-trump-democracy/> (Accessed: 2025-15-04).

16. Spraragen, Avraham (2025): Netanyahu’s Global Far-Right Alliances. J Street Policy Center 03/13/2025. <https://jstreet.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Avraham-Spraragen-Netanyahus-Global-Far-Right-Alliances.pdf> (Accessed: 2025-15-04).

17. Shhadeh, Abned Abou (2025): Israel has become like the Soviet Union in its dying days. Middle East Eye 04/09/2025. <https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/israel-has-become-soviet-union-its-dying-days> (Accessed: 2025-15-04).

18. Olmert, Ehud (2025): Israel Is Closer to a Civil War Than Ever Before. Haaretz 04/11/2025. <https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/2025-04-11/ty-article-opinion/.premium/israel-is-closer-to-a-civil-war-than-ever-before/00000196-2497-d78d-a1de-3c9ff06b0000?gift=144345ac24384c33872213b48a5a251c> (Accessed: 2025-16-04).