Keeping up with the Peace President’s peace projects (Ukraine, Houthis, Iran)
Peace President Trump has begun attacks on the Houthis in Yemen, momentarily one of the very poorest nations in the world.1
Not two full months in office and he’s got some bombing going!
And he’s already threatening Iran with war: “U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday he would hold Iran responsible for any attacks carried out by the Houthi group that it backs in Yemen, as his administration expanded the biggest U.S. military operation in the Middle East since Trump returned to the White House.”2
So far, the Peace President has threatened war with Hamas, Panama, Canada, and Denmark. And now Iran. Plus he’s bombing the Houthis.
Trump is scheduled to have a call on Tuesday with the colleague he admires so much, Vladimir Putin.
Emily Ferris of the British think tank Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) talks to Times Radio about some of the practical negotiating issues around the Russia-Ukraine War3:
Despite the stodgy image of its parent news organization, Times Radio has had some good analysis of the Russia-Ukraine situation.
Here, Ferris talks about the factor of public opinion back home, which even autocracies like Putin’s regime have to take into consideration to some degree. She thinks Putin will not want to risk a backlash if the government is seen as “capitulating” in the peace negotiations.
She discusses why the minerals deal between the US and Ukraine is mostly insignificant because the situation there isn’t going to allow and sudden big increase in minerals extraction anytime right around the time. (There are other reasons why this deal is mostly PR fluff. But if Ukraine were actually forced to pay the US the amounts implied by the minerals deal, it would be a Slavic version of the Versailles Treaty’s very negative effects on Germany after the First World War.)
She also makes the important point that she sees as arguing against a Russian intention to take over all of Ukraine in the immediate future is that taking charge of that territory would mean incredible expenses for reconstruction, added to the burdens she mentions that Russia has with poorer areas within the Russian Federation itself.
However, she also thinks that Russia is not being economically devastated by the war in the way various commentators have been claiming. She estimates that Russia could economically maintain the current war going for years more without crippling consequences to the economy.
Houthi rebels claim retaliation for US airstrikes. DW News YouTube channel 03/17/2024. (Accessed: 2025-17-03).
All, Idres et al (2025): Trump vows to hold Iran responsible for Houthi attacks. Reuters 03/17/2025. <https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-piles-pressure-yemens-houthis-with-new-airstrikes-2025-03-17/> (Accessed: 2025-17-03).
Putin and Trump on collision course as ‘majority’ of Russians oppose a ceasefire. Times Radio YouTube channel 03/17/2025. (Accessed: 2025-17-03).
Given this grinding war of attrition and the heavy losses on both sides, I have to question polling during war time, especially with these two.
Ukraine is under martial law, and even though polls indicate most Ukrainians, by a thin margin, favour giving up land for peace, I wonder if it isn't truly higher. Meanwhile Russia, of course, has to be heavily propagandized under its "imitation democracy" and Putinism and widespread repression against anti-war protesters. It's hard to believe you'd get a well informed or honest answer out of Russians in polls as far as what they want out of these negotiations.
In both countries I think there has to be a fear factor (fear of giving the wrong answer) often even sub conscious.