Lebanon War – “Gaza” comes to Lebanon

Israel has launched an actual war now in Lebanon. Initial indications seem to indicate Benjamin Netanyahu and the IDF will apply something like their approach in the ongoing Gaza war to Lebanon.

Democracy Now! reports¹: (1)

Deutsche Welle English also has a current report²:

After 8:30 in that report, they interview Miri Eisin, “a retired Israeli Israel Defense Forces colonel with an extensive background in Israeli military intelligence. She also served as an international media adviser for a previous Israeli government,” i.e. Ehud Olmert’s. Her appearance opens:

[DW interviewer:] The Israeli Army has released images which they say show the exact location of [where] Hezbollah weapons are stored in civilian homes given that kind of intelligence could the IDF have removed those weapons in a less destructive way and perhaps a lot earlier?

[Miri Elsin:] So, it's interesting you ask it in such a way. What you're saying is that we should have done a ground incursion. Wow! That's the next stage of a- we're in an aerial operation have ground for-

She ducked the question and instantly tried to redefine it. To his credit, the interviewer stuck to his question and responded in a tone that said, okay-I’m-not-playing-this-game:

[DW:] Forgive me, I didn't suggest anything. I asked a question.  Please continue.

[Eisin:] Absolutely. So, I always wonder about what kind of, what do you do when you have an enormous arsenal. What the IDF put out yesterday was one example of one cruise missile held inside a private home in a village in southern Lebanon.

And this is the kind of arsenal that Hezbollah has built up since the 2006 Second Lebanon war. It is built it up in the southern towns that are mainly Shiite towns in the Bekka Valley and in the Dahieh area of Beirut.

Yes, fellow Americans, it’s a new war, so it’s time to brush up on geography again: Bekka Valley, Dahieh, Beirut, etc.

[Eisin:] Again, those are strongholds and this illustration that the IDF put out is most definitely because we're not physically going into the towns and villages. That is a ground incursion. Which would be - I say sadly - much more deadly.

Since the IDF is known for being particularly casualty-averse³, presumably she means, more deadly for the IDF. The host didn’t bring this up, but what about all those super-high-tech weapons Israel is so proud of? In Gaza, they use them to strike individual houses in order to kill suspect Hamas fighters along with their families. I suppose that would be rude to ask.

She goes on to rant some more about Hezbollah and Iran. She says all the deaths are their fault. No surprise there.

The DW host continues, “Understood. And as we heard from [DW’s Chreyteh] Muhammad a little earlier, there's no way for those images to be independently verified. We take what you say, we'll we - we hear what you say and we'll make our own minds up.”

Netanyahu made a statement also mentioning the supposed rockets sheltered in residential houses. Whether we ever have any independent confirmation of that is uncertain. But the bombing using that excuse has already begun. We’ve seen that in Gaza, too, where Israel constantly said the schools and hospitals and residential buildings they were destroying were sheltering Hamas or a Hamas command center or Hamas tunnels.

[DW:] The Prime Minister [Netanyahu] went on TV to tell the people of Lebanon, Israel's war is not with you. It's with Hezbollah. If that's true, why give them such short notice before yesterday's massive strikes?

[Eisin:] Hezbollah, Israel, from October 8^th. This is not a war that Israel has started. Hezbollah, the day after Kamas attacked Israel, attacked Israel with rockets with rockets, with UAVs, with projectiles throughout the North and has done so every single day since.

As usual, with this pitch, we get no description of what damage these various “projectiles” Hamas is firing or how much damage or loss of life they cause. Generally, not much. (Which of course doesn’t excuse indiscriminate attacks by Hezbollah.)

You get the drift. And, yes, she makes sure to get in the talking point about how the World’s Most Moral Army gives warning to civilians to clear out. We’ve seen for nearly a year now how those have worked in Gaza.

In addition to never providing anything resembling independent confirmation of the rockets-in-houses claim – which in itself is plausible and not absurd on its face - we also have to wonder if the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) will target journalists in Lebanon as aggressively as they do in Gaza.

Israeli Minister of Diaspora Affairs Amichai Chikli indicates the aim of Israel is to target the "Shia enemy population" north of the Israel border to create a buffer zone in southern Lebanon free of Lebanese and that "Shia enemy population".⁴

Will Israel use the “Lavender” and “Where’s Daddy?” AI systems in Lebanon to kill men who appear to be a certain age and make a point to kill their families along with them?⁵

How is Netanyahu looking at the war?

Haaretz military and defense analyst Amos Harel has a good understand of the kind of view the Netanyahu government and the IDF. In an early September 24 column on the new latest events, Harel says:

Without any formal declarations, Israel and Hezbollah have in practice moved to a phase of all-out war on Monday. This determination seems true even though Israeli soldiers haven't yet crossing the border into Lebanon and Hezbollah hasn't yet acted on its threat to fire rockets at the greater Tel Aviv area. The main change in the situation was heralded by an extensive wave of airstrikes launched by the air force in the early hours of Monday. By 5 P.M., reports from Lebanon indicated that close to 300 people had been killed and hundreds of others wounded, and that the strikes destroyed a large number of rocket and missile stockpiles.⁶ [my emphasis]

And he observes:

Hezbollah responded with an attack on the outskirts of Haifa and then on the city itself, but it's likely that it will move to heavier strikes deeper inside Israel. Many in Israel are hoping for this in the belief that it will provide the opportunity for routing the terror organization. The bottom line is that Israel is on the fast track to war, even if the public hasn't officially been told this.

On the issue of missiles-in-houses, he writes:

The target there is a project Hezbollah started before the Second Lebanon War in 2006 (it sustained a serious blow at that time): the systematic deployment in villages across the country of mid- and long-range missiles, some of them high-precision, from the group's most important strategic stockpile. These launchers and missiles were mounted on balconies and in the basements of houses, prepared for use in case they were needed. Israeli intelligence has meticulously gathered information on this deployment and it appears that since Monday morning there has been a focused targeting of these stockpiles. [my emphasis]

He notes that Defense Minister Zoav Gallant and top IDF commanders had been advocating for ending combat in Gaza and focus on Lebanon, but Netanyahu disagreed on ending the Gaza combat. But Netanyahu changed his mind. Harel writes:

A unity of opinions in top echelons is legitimate. The most dangerous thing is smugness that can lead to euphoria, which seems to have overcome senior politicians since Sunday. Worryingly, echoes of this can be heard in the IDF, as if the October 7 massacre and the surprise attack it involved never happened. Netanyahu listens to a small circle of advisers, comprising former senior IDF officers holding hawkish opinions. This group of people believes that only by exerting more force will it be possible to impose a deal on Hezbollah. That is their right.

What would be best to avoid is thinking that a series of unprecedented successes chalked up by the IDF and Israel's intelligence agencies in their offensive will necessarily lead to a similar situation while on the defensive [i.e., if Hezbollah mounts a substantial attack on Israel]. War is not a football game. There are no clean victories. Hezbollah is now at a disadvantage, but as has been written here for a long time, it would be better not to dismiss the organization's ability to strike at Israel's home front, including some painful nexuses or locations where we are unprepared. [my emphasis]

War fantasies obviously excite some people

The Biden Administration, of course, is moving more American troops into the area. While hawks backing Israel’s wars are hoping for Donald Trump in the White Houses. Columnist Dan Zamansky apparently thinks even Donald Trump wouldn’t be tough enough to do what needs to be done – which apparently includes crushing all of Israel’s current enemies and also taking over North Korea. He scolds the US for not, well, starting World War Three against all the Bad People. Or something. In addition to scolding the Biden Administration for its almost exclusively verbal and so far obviously ineffective attempt to contain Israel’s current wars, he gripes:

With every day that passes, the Biden-Harris administration provides new evidence that it intends to remain passive in a futile attempt to maintain the present situation worldwide by doing nothing at all.⁷

Then he spins a World War II fantasy, not without the usual rightwing fantasies: “In 1945, America had defeated three dangerous dictatorships, but was formally allied to a fourth, the Soviet Union. There was no energy, no intention to confront the USSR.” Which, like a good neocon, Zamansky thinks was wimpy. Yeah, dude, the US was going to enter a war with the USSR at the moment the Allied coalition had won the most destructive war in history. Maybe someone should explain to him about the battles of Moscow, Stalingrad, and Kursk. Good Lord, this is one of the dumbest of all rightwing fantasies.

Advice for Zamansky: Lay off the neocon tea. It’s not good for you, dude.

1. "Absolutely Terrifying": Israel's War Comes to Lebanon, Sets Record-Breaking Single-Day Death Toll. Democracy Now! YouTube channel 09/24/2024. (Accessed: 2024-24-09).

2. Lebanon update: New cross-border clashes, Israel strikes Beirut again. DW News YouTube channel 09/24/2024. (Accessed: 2024-24-09).

3. Levy, Yagil (2012): Israel’s Death Hierarchy: Casualty Aversion in a Militarized Democracy. New York & London: New York University Press.

4. Israeli minister calls to push Lebanon's 'Shia enemy population' away from border. Middle East Eye 09/23/2024. <https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/israeli-minister-shia-enemy-population-away-borders> (Accessed: 2024-24-09).

5. Abraham, Yuval (2024): ‘Lavender’: The AI machine directing Israel’s bombing spree in Gaza. +972 Magazine 04/08/2024. <https://www.972mag.com/lavender-ai-israeli-army-gaza/> (Accessed: 2024-24-09).

6. Harel, Amos (2024): Israel Has Gone on the Offensive Against Hezbollah, but Is in No Rush to Enter Lebanon. Haaretz 09/24/2024. <https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-09-24/ty-article/.premium/israel-has-gone-on-the-offensive-against-hezbollah-but-is-in-no-rush-for-a-ground-op/00000192-2064-dc44-affb-39f50bb80000> (Accessed: 2024-24-09).

7. Zamansky, Dan (2024): Biden and Harris are addicted to the status quo; Israel, and others, must disregard them. Ynet News 09/24/2024. <https://www.ynetnews.com/article/sy88mygra> (Accessed: 2024-24-09).