Poland in the Europe of 2023
This is an informative report on Poland’s geopolitical position with a national election coming in October, which may or may not result in a more secure rule of law, a big issue for Poland within the EU1:
Poland has been an enthusiastic supporter of Ukraine in the current war. And Poland generally takes a particularly anti-Russian hard line in foreign policy along with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. It’s become a sort of rhetorical division of labor within the EU and NATO.
As Kerstin Jobst wrote of the 2014 crisis, “At the present (2014), Poland is a without doubt again a megaphone for Ukrainian interests in the European Union, which is gratefully accepted in Ukraine.”2
That is largely still true, with some reservations. But: “Poland remains the decisive bridge into Ukraine, to Belarus and the other üpst-Soviet states that are seeking emancipation from Russia.”3
The mutual influence of hardliners in Poland and the US hasn’t been entirely beneficial, however:
The view, especially in the USA and Poland, that NATO could be successively moved 1600 kilometers to the Russian borders to just outside Moscow, and that the special historical relations between Ukraine and Russia could be negated without having to fear consequences, turned out to be a fundamental misconception – just like the view shared with the Ukrainian leadership, that there is no need to take Moscow's threats and troop deployments seriously and that Putin is only bluffing in order to be recognized by the West as a "partner on an equal footing".4 [my emphasis]
Liliana Smiech, the President of the Warsaw Institute, is notably defensive in the Al Jazeera discussion about criticism of Poland for its deficiencies in “European values,” which in this context means mainly Poland lack of diligence in maintaining minimum EU standards for democratic processes and the rule of law.
The segment also discusses the recent embargo imposed by the EU on Ukrainian grain imports at the urging of the Polish agricultural sector, in particular.5 The grain can transit Poland as it is shipped to other locations, but not sold in Poland under the embargo. This is a problem for Ukraine after Russia recently refused to extend the agreement allowing Ukrainian grain exports via the Black Sea.
There’s some reference here to “hybrid warfare” by Russia and Belarus against Poland. But they aren’t very specific, around it’s worth being cautious about vaguely stated claims of “hybrid warfare,” which is used to encompass everything from physical sabotage to cyberattacks to routine propaganda efforts.
How will the Ukraine war affect Poland's future? | Inside Story. Al Jazeera YouTube channel 08/11/2023. (Accessed: 2023-13-08).
Churm, Philip Andrew & Chodownik, Magdaena (20023): EU blocks Ukraine grain imports to five countries including Poland. Euronews 06/14/2023. <https://www.euronews.com/2023/06/14/eu-blocks-ukraine-grain-imports-to-five-countries-including-poland> Accessed: 2023-13-08).
Liboreiro, Jorge (2023): EU extends targeted bans on Ukrainian grain until mid-September, despite Kyiv's objections. Euronews 06/05/2023. <https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2023/06/05/eu-extends-targeted-bans-on-ukrainian-grain-until-mid-september-despite-kyivs-objections> Accessed: 2023-13-08).
Templin, Wolfgang (2023): Im zweiten Jahr der Zeitenwende: Gravitationszentrum Osteuropa. Blätter für deutsche und internationale Politik 3:2023, 51. My translation from the German.
Pradetto, August (2023): Blätter für deutsche und internationale Politik 3:2023, 60. Blätter für deutsche und internationale Politik 3:2023, 51. My translation from the German.
Jobst, Kerstin S. (2015): Geschichte der Ukraine, 33. Stuttgart: Reclam. My translation from the German.