Presidential election gossip (including wider war risks)
I hate to say this. But the first 6 1/2 minutes of this Morning Joe segment1 make sense talking about the current Presidential polls. MSNBC tends to lean heavily toward an establishment-Democratic position, so that’s always important to keep in mind.
The polls don’t look spectacular for Biden against Trump right now. But on the whole, it looks like a very competitive race. The Democrats are going to have to work hard and make sure that they have a strong ground game in key swing states like Michigan.
The disgraceful campaign-financing system
The Democrats in 2024 still struggle with the chronic problem of being hesitant to fight for their own side. That’s because they have a major split on their side. On one hand, they have the voters who like Democratic positions. On the other, they have what is often called the “donor class” who are generally corporate-friendly and who don’t like the kind of economic policies Democratic voters prefer.
The Republican voters are at least willing to vote for the same people their donors love. Even though on some issues like abortion rights and Social Security, those voters also differ from what the Republican candidates and donors actually prefer.
The massive influence of large money contributions is strangling American democracy. And limiting campaign donations to some reasonable level is a critically needed reform. Because meanwhile, we have what I like to describe as The One True Thing David Frum Ever Said: "while Republican politicians fear their base, Democratic pols hate theirs."2
Bibi Netanyahu is no friend of the US or the Democratic Party
Technically, the Biden Administration’s support of Israel’s current policy in the war on the civilians of Gaza is not entirely unconditional. Its spokespeople occasionally make public statements on how they have been able to restrain Netanyahu’s policies around the edges. They have supposedly refused to send rifles that the government would distribute to settler vigilantes in the West Bank. And they have publicly insisted on at least some humanitarian aid getting into Gaza.
But the Administration is consistently backing Netanyahu’s Gaza campaign with an effectively unlimited supply of weapons. Polls are showing that especially younger votes and Black and Hispanic voters view this policy in a negative light. The Muslim-American vote, which is very significant in Michigan, is polling as leaning more Republican than at any time since 2000. The Cheney-Bush Administration’s War on Terror and the blatant Islamophobia they promoted in connection with it made Democrats the preferred party among Muslim-American voters. At least until now.
Biden Administration spokespeople thought it advisable to criticize the recent open calls by Israeli government officials for ethnic cleansing of Gaza Palestinians.
The U.S. State Department said in a statement that the United States rejects recent statements from Israeli Ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir advocating for the resettlement of Palestinians outside of Gaza.
The statement is a rare case of the U.S. criticizing Israel without prompt, and even more rare that it is explicitly calling out Smotrich and Ben Gvir by name. 3
Israel’s National Security Minister essentially flipped off the country that is supplying the two-ton bombs his government has been dropping on Gaza civilians.
National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir rejected the U.S. statement, and said, "We highly value America's friendship, but respectfully, we aren't another star on the American flag."
He added that: "We'll do what's best for Israel: facilitating the relocation of hundreds of thousands from Gaza will allow those in the Israeli Gaza border communities to return home and live securely while safeguarding the IDF soldiers."
Having Biden look like he is being slapped around on policy and treated with open contempt by Netanyahu and senior ministers of his government is not a good look.
Biden has shown in the Russia-Ukraine War that he has been willing to resist Ukrainian requests for weapon supplies that could raise the danger of escalation of the war to direct clashes between Russian and NATO forces.
A wider war in the Middle East
But escalation in the Middle East looks at the moment like a much more imminent possibility.
David Rothkopf has some blunt criticism of the Administration’s Israel-Gaza policy:
Can Israel ever go too far in the eyes of the United States?
Apparently killing 20,000 Palestinians, wounding another 50,000, displacing two million people, and having a ruling coalition that includes senior officials who actively support ethnic cleansing is not far enough to result in America diminishing or suspending its support for Israel's government.
Apparently, setting impossible military goals like the "eradication" of Hamas, failing to make good progress toward even more reasonable goals like eliminating its leadership and making Israel more secure, while all the while lying or misleading about the Israeli government's own errors and promising a war that will go on for many months more, is not far enough for us to say, no, we must stop providing weapons and money and political prestige to back this already failed endeavor in Gaza. …
Is our bond with Israel so great that it is, perhaps alone among all our friendships and partnerships worldwide, unconditional?4 [my emphasis]
Israel has been trying particularly since 2001 to get the US to invade Iran. That’s also been a wet dream of neocons like John Bolton and Butcher’s-Bill Kristol since the 1990s.
If Netanyahu succeeds in getting the US involved in a much larger war, particularly one directly with Iran, that will be a disaster for almost everyone involved, perhaps with the exception of ethnic-cleansing enthusiasts among Netanyahu’s government.
It is also likely to be very bad for Biden’s re-election prospects, not least because it will encourage some portion of potential Democratic voters to not vote at all or vote for a third-party choice for the Presidency.
Trita Parsi in this interview5 describes how a Netanyahu play to get the US into a war with Iran might function:
Parsi notes in the interview that at this point, Biden has been more deferential to Israel than any previous US President, even including Trump. Still, there are reasons that Netanyahu might prefer Trump.
For one thing, Trump and Netanyahu are kindred spirits politically, i.e., rightwing authoritarians who hate democracy and the rule of law. But Trump can be expected to be at least as deferential to Netanyahu on making war against Palestinians civilians as Biden has been. Trump is very aware that Christian Zionists who look forward to wars in Israel and who think the US should always encourage Israel to make war are a major part of his voting base.
Also, unlike Biden, Trump can be expected to be very receptive to bribes.6
Watch Morning Joe Highlights: Jan. 3. MSNBC YouTube channel 01/03/2024. (Accessed 2024-05-01).
Gibbs on the Left FrumForum 08/10/2010. <http://frumforum.com/entry/gibbs-on-the-left> Accessed: 2022-15-06).
Samuels, Ben (2024): 'They Should Stop Immediately' | U.S. Calls Out Far-right Israeli Ministers for Advocating Transfer of Palestinians Out of Gaza. Haaretz 01/02/2024. <https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-01-02/ty-article/.premium/u-s-calls-out-israeli-ministers-for-advocating-transfer-of-palestinians-out-of-gaza/0000018c-cbec-d4e1-ad8f-fffd3ad60000> (Accessed: 2024-04-01).
Rothkopf, David (2024): Are There No Red Lines to U.S. Support for Israel? Haaretz 01/02/2024. <https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/2023-12-31/ty-article-opinion/.premium/are-there-no-red-lines-to-u-s-support-for-israel/0000018c-bf3a-d45c-a98e-bf7ea92b0000> (Accessed: 2024-04-01).
Broader War LOOMS After Iran Terror Attacks. Breaking Points YouTube channel 01/04/2024. (Accessed: 2024-04-01).
Pengelly, Martin (2024): Trump businesses received millions in foreign payments while he was in office. The Guardian 01/04/2024. <https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/jan/04/trump-businesses-payment-house-investigation-china-saudi-arabia> (Accessed 2024-05-01).