The spreading war in the Middle East

Iran has taken the step of firing missiles into Iraq, at Erbil in the Kurdish area where American troops are stationed.

The conflict around the Gaza War is widening. Iran has now acted directly in the [larger] conflict for the first time and fired at targets in Iraq and Syria. At the same time, the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen again fired at ships in the Red Sea and declared Western war ships as "legitimate targets." Experts see a dangerous inner dynamic of the conflict that could embrace the entire Near East.¹

The strikes reportedly hit near the American consulate in Erbil (Iraq), where the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is located. In the current situation, the US has been supporting quasi-secessionist Kurdish areas in Iraq and Syria, helping them against the Iraqi government, against Syria, and against the Sunni jihadist Islamic State (IS/ISIS/ISIL) forces, and against NATO member Türkiye.

The Kurdish factor

The Kurdish forces in that area represent legitimate concerns of democracy and self-rule. But the US relationship to the Kurds in the area has been characterized in recent decades by a level of cynicism that stands out even in a generally approach to the countries in the reason, except for Israel. And as we see in the current war on Gaza, the US has been willing to back cynical and brutal policies by Israel, as well.

In the current lineup, Iran is allied with the Syrian government of President Bashar al-Assad. Although Syria is predominately a Sunni Muslim country, the main power base of Assad’s government is among Alawite Muslims, which Iran’s leaders view as related to their own Shia version of Islam. Aliwites “consider themselves to be moderate Shīʿites, not much different from the Twelvers,” i.e. the Twelver Shi’a tradition.²

Various Kurdish groups have long had good relations with Israel as well as with its most important patron, the US:

Erbil Governor Omed Abdulrahman Hassan said that Iranian missiles had failed to hit their intended targets and denied the existence of secret foreign bases or facilities in Kurdistan. Iraq's Foreign Ministry condemned the attack, saying it violated Iraqi sovereignty. Last week, Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein denied the presence of any Mossad personnel or affiliates in the Harir Airbase.

Israeli-Kurdish relations have been warm and welcoming for decades. Israel was among the only countries around the world to recognize the results of a 2017 referendum on the Kurdistan Region's independence, with 92% of votes cast in favor of independence.

Israel has maintained ties with the Kurds since the 1960s and 70s, during which time Israeli intelligence agents operated in Iraqi Kurdistan in collaboration with Mullah Mustafa Barzani, the father of the current Kurdish leader.³

There are also tensions between Iran’s theocratic rulers and the current theocratic government in Iran:

… Kurdish political mobilization in Iran has amounted to an act of resistance. At times, this has manifested in armed struggle and open insurrection. In 1947, following the Anglo-Soviet occupation of Iran, a short-lived autonomous republic was established in the town of Mahabad. However, Pahlavi forces — with, it should be noted, the connivance of numerous Kurdish tribes — crushed this attempt at self-rule aft er eleven months. In the 1970sand 1980s, Iranian Kurdistan once again became the center of armed struggle, first during the revolution that overthrew the shah and then as one of the chief centers of resistance to the new government. (One reason for their opposition was religious: the majority of Iran’s Kurds are Sunni; the Islamic Republic is Shi’ite.)⁴

In a world of the-enemy-of-my-enemy-is-my-friend, this is yet another reason that Kurdish groups might find common cause with Israel in some ways. There are significant populations of Kurds in Iran, Iraq, Türkiye, and Syria.

Wider war

The war is widening. And if the Biden Administration doesn’t want that to continue, it will have to seriously reign in Benjamin Netanyahu’s rouge regime by seriously restricting or halting altogether US weapons supplies to Israel. Sen. Bernie Sanders again called attention to what a problematic situation the Gaza war is.

Israel does not have the right to go to war against the entire Palestinian people and innocent men, women, and children in Gaza. And, tragically, that is what we are seeing right now.

As we all know, the military campaign being waged by the rightwing Netanyahu government has led to massive destruction and widespread civilian harm. This has been far and away the most intensive bombing campaign of the 21st century.⁵ [my emphasis]

The headline and subheads of this Haaretz column by Amos Harel give a snapshot of the current US dilemma over Israel’s war on Gaza:

Harel explains that Netanyahu’s goal clearly appears to be to prolong the active war at least through the November US Presidential election.

On Monday [January 15], Defense Minister Yoav Gallant reiterated his claim that only continued military pressure on Hamas will lead to another hostage deal, and that without the IDF's offensive, nothing would happen. A significant portion of the army brass shares this view, though most are less adamant than Gallant.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also keeps repeating his empty slogans ("we'll fight until victory"), but in his case, this stems mainly from considerations of political survival. Netanyahu knows that despite the growing public support for a hostage deal that would include difficult concessions, such a deal would break up his government, because his far-right partners would likely quit over it.⁶ [my emphasis]

Netanyahu, a seriously bad actor for US foreign policy

Bibi Netanyahu is a bad leader heading a relatively unstable rightwing coalition government. He is facing serious corruption charges which give him strong incentive to stay in office as long as those are still pending. And his is fully committed to his rightwing Likud Party’s version of “from the river to the sea,” i.e., Israel as a Jewish state incorporating all of what is now Israel, the Gaza, and the West Bank.

Alon Pinkas gives this evaluation of Biden’s current option in dealing with his irresponsible ally Netanyahu, whose government is currently facing serious legal charges of a genocide in progress at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in the Hague:

Netanyahu is deliberately seeking a confrontation with the Biden administration. It serves his "I stand up to American pressure" fake bravado and is part of his attempt to turn October 7 into a much greater historic conflict about a Palestinian state and Iran. I, and others, have written about this before, but now it seems that the realization matured in Washington, with reports of "frustration," "anger" and "disappointment" towards Netanyahu, who is not seen as an ally. In a nutshell, Israel is an ally, its prime minister is not. …

Biden essentially has six different tools in his arsenal:

1. He can disengage altogether and tell Israel "I did my best, do what you want, call me at 1-202-456-1414 when you're serious," like James Baker III said in 1990. But that ignores the regional dimension and America's involvement.

2. He can admonish Netanyahu publicly and blame him for failing to cooperate and endangering Israel.

3. He can slow down the transfer of arms and munitions to Israel.

4. He can abstain or even support a new UN Security Council resolution calling for a cease-fire.

5. He can demand a cease-fire, something the U.S. has conspicuously refrained from doing until now.

6. The most audacious option: In coordination with Saudi, Egypt, Jordan, UAE and Qatar, he can publish the U.S.' vision for postwar Gaza, including Israel's integration in the axis, complete with normalization with Saudi Arabia, and present this to Israel over Netanyahu's head. "I have been there for you, I care about your security, I will guarantee your security, but I also care about your future. Here is what I propose, and I will back you through the process."⁷ [my emphasis]

A spreading Middle East war is not good for the United States, no matter how much it may fit the agenda of the current Israeli Prime Minister. And it is hard to see how it could be good for Joe Biden’s reelection prospects.

As Bernie warns in his speech, mass death from starvation in Gaza is right around the corner unless Netanyahu’s government changes its current policy, and quickly.

In November, only a month into Israel’s assault on Gaza that has now surpassed 100 days, Pedro Arrojo-Agudo, a UN Special Rapporteur on the right to safe drinking water and sanitation, warned that Israel “must stop using water as a weapon of war.” “Every hour that passes with Israel preventing the provision of safe drinking water in the Gaza Strip, in brazen breach of international law, puts Gazans at risk of dying of thirst and diseases related to the lack of safe drinking water,” he implored. The death toll resulting from the lack of water and its impact on public health, Arrojo-Agudo added, could surpass that of the Israeli bombardment itself.  

Denying water to Gaza has been a key tactic of the war from the very beginning, with Israel shutting off the pipes supplying the enclave on October 7. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant announced that Israel was “imposing a complete siege on Gaza. No electricity, no food, no water, no fuel. Everything is closed. We are fighting human animals, and we are acting accordingly.”⁸  [my emphasis]

And this danger is not something we just learned about this week or even last month:

The ramifications soon became clear. At the end of October, an internal U.S. State Department report expressed concern that 52,000 pregnant women and over 30,000 babies under the age of six months were being forced to drink a potentially lethal mix of water polluted with sewage and salt from the sea. Since then, Palestinians in the Gaza Strip have been severely weakened by rampant hunger and disease, as well as the physical wounds inflicted on nearly 60,000 people and the mental stress of ceaseless bombardment that has taken more than 23,500 lives. All of this renders Palestinians in Gaza even more vulnerable to water-borne illnesses.⁹

In all of this, it’s important to keep in mind how chaotic and often dysfunctional Netanyahu’s government is. Netanyahu is an authoritarian who cares little for democracy or the rule of law. And something that always comes with authoritarian government is massive incompetence at actually governing on things that matter to the majority of its people. Even Mussolini didn’t actually make the trains run on time.¹⁰ That claim was a very conscious propaganda piece. (Although the fact that people often repeat it even today is a sign of how successful it was as a propaganda line.)

Amos Harel explains his understanding of the current diplomatic skullduggery Netanyahu is practicing with the Biden Administration:

He's under pressure from his coalition members Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich and wants to unite his rightist base behind his claim that only he can prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state.

He also apparently wants ongoing friction with the Biden administration, on the assumption that he will thereby be able to blame the Americans for the failure to achieve the war's goals while waiting for Donald Trump to win November's presidential election.

His deliberate rejection of the PA isn't limited to Gaza. All the security services have warned of an imminent major explosion in the West Bank due to the failure to transfer tax revenues to the PA and the fact that Palestinians have been barred from working in Israel. But Netanyahu has ignored them for the same reasons that he has avoided advancing a hostage deal or discussing postwar arrangements.¹¹  [my emphasis]

One can only hope that Biden is serious about distancing the United States from Netanyahu and his current war.

1. Seibert, Thomas (2024): Irans Angriff als Warnung an den Westen: Raketen können bis Israel fliegen. Die Presse 16.01.2024 <https://www.diepresse.com/17999226/irans-angriff-als-warnung-an-den-westen-raketen-koennen-bis-israel-fliegen> (Accessed: 2024-17-01). My translation from German.

2. Editors (2023): Alawite. Britannica Online 11/30/2023. <https://www.britannica.com/topic/Alawite>. (Accessed 2024-30-11).

3. Ben Ari, Lior (2024): Iranian attack on 'Mossad HQ' in Iraq highlights Israeli-Kurdish undercurrents. Ynet News 01/17/2024. <https://www.ynetnews.com/article/sk2ahxst6> (Accessed: 2024-17-01).

4. Bajalan, Djene Rhys (2022): The Kurdish Struggle Is at the Heartof the Protests in Iran. Jacobin 0/05/2022. <https://jacobin.com/2022/10/iran-protests-jina-mahsa-amini-kurds> (Accessed: 2022-08-10).

5. LIVE: Congress MUST address the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Seantor Bernie Sanders YouTube channel 01/17/2024. (Accessed: 2024-17-01). Starting after 8:10 in the video. (Accessed: 2024-17-01).

6. Harel, Amos (2024): Israel-Hamas Hostage Deal Takes Back Seat Due to Netanyahu's Political Calculations. Haaretz 01/17/2024. <https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-01-17/ty-article/.premium/hamas-or-hostages-israeli-army-agonizes-over-two-conflicting-goals-in-gaza/0000018d-13e2-dd15-a7af-9fef130b0000> (Accessed: 2024-17-01).

7. Pinkas, Alon (2024): Biden Is Angry and Frustrated With Netanyahu. But He Has Realistic Options to Change Course. Haaretz 01/15/2023. <https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/2024-01-15/ty-article/.premium/biden-is-angry-and-frustrated-with-netanyahu-he-has-realistic-options-to-change-course/0000018d-0d2e-de9c-a3df-6ffffc000000> (Accessed: 2024-17-01). Paragraph breaks added.

8. Murray, Nancy & Bishara, Amahl (2024): In Gaza, Israel has turned water into a weapon of mass destruction. +972 Magazine 01/16/2024 <https://www.972mag.com/gaza-israel-water-weapon/> (Accessed: 2024-17-01).

9. Ibid.

10. Dudley, David (2016): The Problem With Mussolini and His Trains. Bloomberg 11/15/2016. <https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-15/stop-saying-mussolini-made-the-trains-run-on-time>(Accessed: 2024-17-01). “The story that Mussolini made the trains run on time arose in the late ‘20s and gained credence abroad mainly because of well-heeled British tourists who considered the hopelessly refractory Italians governable only by dictatorial means.” (Victoria de Grazia)

11. Harel, op. cit.