Two nuclear powers are involved in direct combat against each other
India, the world’s most populous country, and Pakistan are involved in a new armed conflict with each other. This is seriously not a good thing:1
The Peace President’s administration called for restraint on both sides. India blew them off:
A day after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged India and Pakistan to de-escalate tensions following the April 22 terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, US Vice President JD Vance said the “hope here is that India responds to this terrorist attack in a way that doesn’t lead to a broader regional conflict.” Vance also said he hoped “that Pakistan, to the extent that they are responsible, cooperates with India to make sure that the terrorists sometimes operating in their territory are hunted down and dealt with.”
But on Tuesday, in what it code-named Operation Sindoor, India fired missiles at multiple sites in Pakistan, claiming that those sites were “terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir from where terrorist attacks against India have been planned and directed.” According to a report in The Guardian newspaper, no Pakistani military sites were targeted.2
India’s response:
But on Tuesday, in what it code-named Operation Sindoor, India fired missiles at multiple sites in Pakistan, claiming that those sites were “terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir from where terrorist attacks against India have been planned and directed.” According to a report in The Guardian newspaper, no Pakistani military sites were targeted.
Before the missile attack, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave full operational freedom to the Indian military to avenge the Pahalgam attack, which killed 26 people in the portion of Kashmir controlled by India. ... After India’s missile attack, Pakistan’s Dawn newspaper cited Pakistani Lt. Gen. Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry as saying: “Let me say it unequivocally: Pakistan will respond to this at a time and place of its own choosing. This heinous provocation will not go unanswered.” [my emphasis]
Archie Bland notes:
The strikes constituted the largest such Indian attack on Pakistan in more than half a century, and marked the worst confrontation between the two nuclear-armed powers since 2019. Pakistan responded with shelling of Indian Kashmir, and there were claims – not corroborated, and to be treated with caution – that it has shot down five Indian jets. The country’s military also claimed that a hydropower plant had been hit. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said that his country “has every right to give a befitting reply to this act of war”.3 [my emphasis]
ABC (Australian Broadcasting Company) provides this current news:
The strikes [by India] killed at least 26 people, including a child.
The scale of India's response has caught many by surprise.
Previous strikes by India have focused on border areas and Pakistan-controlled Kashmir.
This time, the assault reached about 100 kilometres inside Pakistan — and outside the contested region.
Since India's strikes, skirmishes have intensified on both sides of Kasmhir's Line of Control (LoC) — a heavily militarised border between areas controlled by Pakistan and India.
There have been reports of artillery fire and troop movements.4
In past times, the world might expect that the US would try to assert some constructive pressure to avoid a widening India-Pakistan conflict and try to facilitate diplomatic solutions. With the chaotic Trump 2.0 regime, the chances of that are dramatically reduced. I literally wouldn’t be surprised if he sends him real-estate buddy and Special Envoy to Everywhere Steve Witkoff to negotiate a settlement. Which would let us expect the same kind of success Witkoff has had with the Russia-Ukraine War, the multiple conflicts in which Israel is involved, and the efforts to negotiate a new nuclear-arms agreement with Iran.
But Trump just met with Canada’s newly-elected Prime Minister in the Oval Office to threaten him with annexation by the US. And the regime is proceeding to prepare for war with Denmark over Greenland.
“We need Greenland very badly,” Trump said. “Greenland is a very small amount of people, which we’ll take care of, and we’ll cherish them, and all of that. But we need that for international security.”
He added that he wouldn’t “rule out” using military force to annex the island, which would mark a stunning development against a territory controlled by a NATO ally.5
India launches strike against Pakistan in wake of tourist massacre. CNN 05/07/2025. (Accessed: 2025-07-05).
Jaffery, Syed Ali Zia (2025): India’s missile attack shows that managing an India-Pakistan crisis is easier said than done. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 05/06/2025. <https://thebulletin.org/2025/05/indias-missile-attack-shows-that-managing-an-india-pakistan-crisis-is-easier-said-than-done/#post-heading> (Accessed: 2025-07-05).
Bland, Archie (2025): Wednesday briefing: Pakistan vows response to ‘act of war’ after India’s cross-border strikes. Guardian 05/07/2025. <https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/may/07/wednesday-briefing-pakistan-vows-response-to-act-of-war-after-indias-cross-border-strikes> (Accessed: 2025-07-05).
Bali, Meghna (2025): The scale of India's response to the Kashmir attack caught many by surprise as global leaders call for calm. ABC News (Australia) 05/07/2025. <https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-07/india-strikes-scale-surprising-global-leaders-call-for-calm/105263064#:~:text=Since%20India%27s%20strikes,and%20troop%20movements> (Accessed: 2025-07-05).
Marcus, Josh (2025): US intelligence agencies told to ramp up spying on Greenland as Trump eyes takeover. Independent 05/07/2025. <https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-tusli-gabbard-spy-greenland-b2746117.html> (Accessed: 2025-07-05).