Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks to Congress
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed the US Congress in person on Wednesday the 25th. This is the video from The Independent1:
CNN provides a full transcript of the speech.2
My general impression was that it was a strong presentation, illustrating once again how a background in film acting can be very practical for a politician. He made a strong case for US support in the current war without resorting to bombast or histrionics, both of which would have been understandable in the situation.
He also gives European countries credit for supporting Ukraine: “Europeans gained this victory, and that’s why Europe is now stronger and more independent than ever. The Russian tyranny has lost control over us.”
Zelenskyy’s invocation of the Second World War included a reference to Hitler:
The Russians’ tactic is primitive. They burn down and destroy everything they see. They sent thugs to the front lines, they sent convicts to the war. They threw everything against us, similar to the other tyranny, which is in the Battle of the Bulge.
Threw everything it had against the free world, just like the brave American soldiers, which held their lines and fought back Hitler’s forces during the Christmas of 1944, brave Ukrainian soldiers are doing the same to Putin’s forces this Christmas.
Most Americans will recognize what the Battle of the Bulge was. I’m not so sure about his reference to the Battle of Saratoga. But a more familiar battle reference, like Gettysburg or Sherman’s March to the Sea would probably have upset most of the Republicans.
Zelenskyy’s speechwriters know, of course, that since 1945 the United States has fought wars only against “Hitler.” It’s a habit that continually leads to threat inflation. Osama bin Laden was Hitler, Saddam Hussein was Hitler, etc. So they knew a Hitler reference was mandatory.
Europe and the Russia-Ukraine War
Europe, the EU countries, are more independent from Russia, as Zelenskyy said, now that they are drastically reducing their dependence on Russia oil and gas. But those supplies haven’t been completely cut off. Hungary and Slovakia obtained an exemption from the EU oil embargo3 as their condition for approving the EU sanctions.
And in the short term - this winter and next - Europe is now more dependent on the US than before. The US policy since the Clinton Administration has supported the expansion of the EU in no small part because the US prefers to see a broad but relatively loosely united EU. US policy views the EU as a potential “peer competitor” and takes a dim view of the notion of the EU exercising a united foreign policy and also of the idea of an EU army. (Russia prefers to weaken the existing EU for its own reasons.)
The US prefers to have NATO as the dominant military alliance in western Europe. Although the Trumpistas tend to be hostile to the idea of both NATO and the EU. Another Trump Presidency would be a powerful incentive for the EU to become more independent of the US. But it would probably also mean increased cooperation between the EU and China in seeking to balance against the US and Russia.
Democracy vs. Autocracy?
Heather Cox Richardson (Facebook 12/21/2022) gives her analysis of the speech. “In a time when democracy seemed to be on the ropes and authoritarians like Putin seemed to be gaining the upper hand, the Ukrainians came to stand for the power of democracy.”
It first of all stands for the resistance of a sovereign nation, Ukraine, to being illegally invaded by Russia. Ukraine is a democracy. But the Biden-Harris Administration preferred framing of the current world situation as Democracies vs. Autocracies is a problematic one. Liberal-interventionist wars can also be problematic, to put it mildly. The Kosovo War of 1999 left sovereignty issues not fully resolved to this day4, which provide Serbian ally Russia an opportunity to create foreign policy problems for the EU. Following international law does mean using any democratic deficit in a country to justify an invasion or regime-change operation.
Zelenskyy declared to Congress, “The restoration of international legal order is our joint task.“ But restoration of international law is not dependent on every nation in the world becoming an American- or German-style democracy. Having all nations to abide by international law when it comes to starting wars would be an enormous benefit. And particularly when it comes to nuclear proliferation, nuclear arms control, and dealing with the climate crisis, waiting until all countries become democracies by American and EU standards would pretty much doom the world to catastrophe. Catastrophe than can be avoided.
Richardson continues directly to make point that are valid so far as they go:
They [the Ukrainians] showed that Putin’s mighty army was hollowed out by corruption and apathy, while the Ukrainians, who were supposed to be weak, dropped their civilian lives to defend their country. They showed that Putin’s claim of moral superiority over secular democracies—which, he said, were a cesspool of decadence—was a sham: his mercenaries committed war crimes and boasted of it. As the western Allies had done during World War II, the Ukrainians demonstrated that democracy, for all its messiness, was far superior to authoritarianism.
But this take sounds uncomfortably like Cold War triumphalism of the last three decades, with its often superficial celebration of the “Greatest Generation” and of the Allied triumph in the Second World War. The winning alliance in that war also included the country that incurred the greatest losses in the process of that conflict, the Soviet Union, which did not have a liberal democracy in the form of the US and Britain. And Russia also celebrates that war, the Great Patriotic War in their version, and even frame the current war against Ukraine using their version of that war.
The US and Britain had no problem supporting the national independence of the USSR in that war. Nor in supporting the united front of the Chinese Communists and the (also not liberal-democratic) Kuomintang (1937-1945) against Imperial Japan in that same war. Just as the US and the EU find it convenient at this moment to kiss up the oil monarchies in Saudi Arabia and Qatar and not worry too much about the very brutal war they are financing in Yemen. Or about the Saudi leader’s pendant for dismembering journalists they find inconvenient.
Cold War triumphalism and simplistic dichotomies like Democracies vs. Autocracies obscure an awful lot that is critical in foreign policy.
Ukrainian refugees?
I’m surprised that Zelenskyy didn’t mention the Ukrainian refugees. The count I used in a December 16 post was 7.8 million in the EU plus Moldova, 2.9 million in Russia and Belarus, and 5.9 million internally displaced insight Ukraine. For a country with a population of 44 million, that’s a staggering portion of the country in flight.
Given that the politics of refugees in the EU has been seriously dysfunctional since at least 2015, it wouldn’t at all surprise me if a number of EU leaders and even Biden told him it would be a bad idea to bring it up. The EU countries, like it or not, are bearing and will continue the main responsibility for the Ukrainian refugees. If the Biden-Harris Administration choose to raise the profile of that issue, e.g., by offering substantial refugee aid conditioned on better performance by the EU, that could make a difference.
But given how seriously dysfunctional US refugee policy has also been for the last two decades, that’s not likely to happen. Still, since one of Russia’s policy aims with this war is to create disruptions in EU politics over refugees that they hope with weaken EU unity, the leaders of the NATO countries need to get out front on this issue. The radical right in Europe has cautious about targeting Ukrainian refugees this year. That will change.
It’s also likely to the point of inevitable that many of the refugees currently in the EU will never be going home permanently to Ukraine. The war damage inside Ukraine is staggering, and Russia is extensively targeting civilian infrastructure. Before February 22, Ukraine was still years away from meeting the minimum requirements for EU membership, and also those for NATO membership. Moreover, the western part of Ukraine where the fighting is taking place is the country’s main industrial center.
In that situation, not only will it be effectively impossible for Ukraine to absorb the external refugees back in the short term. But the money transfers from Ukrainians living and working in Europe will be a critical source of economic support for reconstruction. And, obviously, the war could go on much longer, bringing much more serious damage.
The forcible deportation of Ukrainian children by Russia, which is literally kidnapping, is a particularly poignant and serious concern.5
Diplomacy in the war
Zelenskyy made this very broad reference to diplomacy:
Ukraine has already offered proposals which I just discussed with President Biden, our peace formula, 10 points which should and must be implemented for our joint security, guaranteed for decades ahead and the summit which can be held.
I’m glad to share that President Biden supported our peace initiative today. Each of you, ladies and gentlemen, can assist in the implementation to ensure that Americans’ leadership remains solid, bicameral and bipartisan.
In this connection, I found this an intriguing observation in the Austrian news magazine Profil. Military expert Markus Reisner makes this observation about the Russian retreat from Kherson in November in the face of the Ukrainian counter-offensive:
Reisner is surprised at how orderly the withdrawal of the approximately 30,000 Russian troops from Kherson to the east side of the Dnieper River was. Why didn't Ukraine seize the opportunity to mix it up with its [retreating] opponent? In their withdrawal, the Russian troops would have been an easy target, but the Ukrainian army nevertheless allowed them to withdraw, along with equipment and weapons. "This is astounding," says Reisner, "and an indication that there may have been negotiations in the background." …
Reisner believes that the withdrawal of the Russians from Kherson could be the beginning of talks: "It may be that the US negotiated with the Russians and ensured that they could withdraw from Kherson unhindered. That would also explain why the Ukrainians let them go." Perhaps the US hoped that this would be a first step towards larger negotiations.6
This is speculation, of course. But these factors are important. The Russians and Ukrainians were also able to negotiate via the UN an agreement to allow grain exports to continue during the war. It’s easy for observers to lose sight of these factors when the chest-beating rhetoric and the endless polemics are so much more engaging.
Reaction from the Trumpista right
Cathy Young, journalist with The Bulwark and a Russian immigrant, has a roundup of the far right’s reaction to Zelenskyy’s speech.7 Donald Trump, Jr., tweeted on Elmo’s Playpen, “Zelensky is basically an ungrateful international welfare queen.”8 Young walks us through the reactions of some of the usual suspects: Viktor Orbán fanboy Tucker Carlson; Tulsi Gabbard; Charlie Kirk; Matt Walsh; Byron York; and others. The "Trumpist populist right," as Young labels them.
Keeping Perspective
I take it for granted that people everywhere need to keep a critical perspective on war, whatever side they may be cheering for. The now-legendary investigative journalist I.F. Stone’s perspective is perennially important, especially when it comes to war: “All governments lie, but disaster lies in wait for countries whose officials smoke the same hashish they give out.”9
YouTube (2022): Watch again: Zelensky addresses US congress during visit to The White House. (Accessed: 2022-22-12)
CNN (2022). READ: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s remarks to Congress 12/22/2022. <https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/22/politics/zelensky-congress-address-transcript/index.html> (Accessed: 2022-22-12)
Guarascio, Francesco (2022): Hungary, Slovakia to get end-2023 exception to Russian oil embargo -source. Reuters 05/04/2022 <https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/hungary-slovakia-get-end-2023-exception-russian-oil-embargo-source-2022-05-04/> (Accessed: 2022-22-12)
Serbien fordert Stationierung von eigenen Streitkräften im Kosovo. In: Standard 11.12.2022 <https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000141685858/kommunalwahlen-im-kosovo-wegen-wegen-ethnischer-spannungen-werdenverschoben> (Accessed: 2022-22-12)
Red Flag Alert for Genocide: Russia (2022): Lemkin Institute for Genocide Prevention. 10/25/2022 <https://www.lemkininstitute.com/_files/ugd/391abe_a31698048252459087c3a046e4b53a8e.pdf> (Accessed: 2022-23-12)
Geets, Siobhán (2022): Die vier Phasen des Krieges. In: Profil 51-52:2002, 18.12.2022 <https://www.profil.at/ausland/ukraine-die-vier-phasen-des-krieges-und-ein-ausblick/402266067>
Young, Cathy (2022): Putin’s Useful Idiots: Right Wingers Lose It Over Zelensky Visit. In: The Bulwark 12/22/2022 <https://www.thebulwark.com/putins-useful-idiots-right-wingers-lose-it-over-zelensky-visit/> (Accessed: 2022-23-12)
Trump, Donald, Jr. (2022): Twitter 12/21/2022. (Accessed: 2022-23-12)
Stone, I.F. (1967): Goodreads. <https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/840393-all-governments-lie-but-disaster-lies-in-wait-for-countries> (Accessed: 2022-23-12)